Betting Odds of Detroit Tigers Winning World Series Drop to 8-1
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The shakeup on future odds for the World Series winner this week is reminiscent of a similar occurrence in NFL future odds this past spring. The Detroit Tigers, listed last week as a 12-1 play to win the Series, pulled off a trade that has captured the public’s attention and moved the line to 8-1.
On Tuesday, Detroit acquired starting pitcher Dontrelle Willis and third baseman Miguel Cabrera from the Florida Marlins. In order to get these young stars in their prime, the Tigers dealt six hot prospects, including their first pick of the 2006 draft, left-handed starter Andrew Miller, and their first pick of the 2005 draft, outfielder Cameron Maybin. Also sent to Florida were catcher Mike Rabelo, and pitchers Burke Badenhop, Dallas Trahern, and Eulogio de la Cruz.
Dave Dombowski, current Detroit general manager who once held the same post for the Marlins, noted that “you have to give up good players to get good players.”
Although Willis is a left-handed starter with flashes of All-Star ability and Cabrera is on the cusp of being one of the three or four best players in the game, Detroit did send a lot of talent Florida’s way, and the Marlins have shown themselves to be very canny in their acquisitions of young talent; after all, that’s how they got Cabrera and Willis in the first place.
Still, the trade seems destined to benefit Detroit in a major way this season, and so gamblers have placed enough bets on the Tigers’ season to drop the payoff significantly in just a few days.
The same thing happened in March, when the New England Patriots were listed as a 7-1 choice to win the Superbowl.
In a matter of days that month, the Patriots acquired linebacker Adalius Thomas, wide receiver Randy Moss, wide receiver Wes Welker, and wide receiver Donte Stallworth through trades and free agency. Once the news of New England’s moves had reached the public, the plays on the Patriots started rolling in. By the end of the week, the payoff on the Pats had dropped to 5-2.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the similarities of the trades’ affects is in extrapolating what the Tigers’ line might do. After all, some thought 5-2 at the time was not enough payoff to risk a future bet last spring; but now, the Patriots are 1-5 to win it all. Makes one wonder if its the right time to buy Tigers.